Svello AI Intelligence Updated: April 2026

INSG Global Nickel Market Dynamics

Analyzing the sudden 2026 deficit pivot and systemic supply-demand variables.

Source: International Nickel Study Group (INSG) April 2026 Release.

2026 Revised Balance

-32,000 t

Deficit (First since 2021)

Forecast Deficit Swing

293,000 t

From +261k t prev. forecast

2026 Projected Production

3.715 Mt

↓ 4.25% YoY (vs 3.880 Mt in '25)

2026 Projected Usage

3.747 Mt

↑ 4.17% YoY (vs 3.597 Mt in '25)

Comparing 2025 actual oversupply to the original and revised 2026 outlooks (Tonnes).

Visualizing demand outstripping contracting global output (Million Tonnes).

• Indonesian Quota Controls: World's top producer introduced tighter extraction limits under the RKAB system, curbing output.
• Sulphur Scarcity: Geopolitical strains (Iran Conflict) caused critical sulphur logistics shortages, driving a ~10% output drop for key high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) plants.
• HPM Pricing Mechanism: Indonesia updated its benchmark pricing formulas to include cobalt, iron, and chromium for the first time, elevating floor costs.

• Stainless Steel Resilience: Continued expansion across global industrial and infrastructure networks remains the primary engine for demand growth.
• EV Battery Headwinds: EV growth has decelerated compared to early predictions due to market capture by Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) chemistries and Plug-in Hybrids.
• Macro Resilience: Despite escalating Middle East macroeconomic anxieties and micro inflationary risks, core consumption remains surprisingly robust.